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Start Here prediction markets.
New to prediction markets? Start here: what event contracts are, how prices work as probabilities, how markets resolve, and how they differ from sportsbooks.
How to Open Your First Prediction Market Account: A Beginner's Guide for 2026
You've heard about prediction markets. You want to try them. You don't know where to start. This is the complete walk-through, from picking your first platform to placing your first trade, written for readers who have never touched an event contract.
Updated Sep 18, 2026
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting Markets: What's the Difference?
Prediction markets and sports betting markets look similar from a distance. Both let you take a position on an outcome. But they are different products, under different regulators, with different economics. Here's the full breakdown.
Updated Sep 18, 2026
How event contracts work
Price equals probability. A contract at 40¢ means the market thinks there's a 40% chance. Here's the full mechanic, with a Lakers walk-through.
Updated Sep 17, 2026
Reading probability prices: a 5-minute primer
Why 62¢ is the same as +61 in American odds, and why you'll never want to go back.
Updated Sep 17, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Launching Perpetual Futures. Here's What That Actually Means
On April 22, 2026, Marketplace reported both major US prediction markets are preparing to offer perpetual futures: a leveraged, no-expiration derivative that until now has only existed offshore. Here's what they are, why now, and whether you should care.
Updated Sep 18, 2026
What Are Event Contracts? A Plain-English Guide
Event contracts are CFTC-regulated financial instruments that pay $1 if a real-world event happens and $0 if it doesn't. They're not bets, not stocks, and not options, and they're legal in California. Here's how they actually work.
Updated Sep 23, 2026Start Here: common questions
- What is a prediction market?
- A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell event contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not. The price, from 1 to 99 cents, reads as the market's probability of that outcome.
- Are prediction markets legal in California?
- Yes. CFTC-regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket US are available to California residents aged 21+, because event contracts are regulated under federal commodities law.
- How much money do I need to start?
- Most platforms have no or very low minimum deposits, and a single contract costs less than $1, so you can learn with a few dollars before sizing up.
- How is a prediction market different from a sportsbook?
- You trade against other people on an exchange instead of against a house, you can sell your position before the event ends, and prices move with supply and demand rather than set odds.