California Hub
California's prediction-market guide.
Prediction markets are legal in California. Every platform on this page is CFTC-regulated under federal commodities law. Which means they bypass California's sports-betting ban entirely. Here's where to start, what's tradable, and how taxes work.
Platforms legal in California
| Platform | Regulation | Best for | CA status | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | CFTC-regulated (US iPhone app) | iPhone-first traders | Legal in CA | Visit → |
| OG (by Crypto.com) | CFTC-regulated event contracts (via OG) | New traders chasing a bigger bonus | Legal in CA | Visit → |
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated DCM | Politics and elections | Legal in CA | Visit → |
Disclosure: outbound platform links are affiliate links. See our disclosure.
Also worth knowing: travel-only options
These platforms are not available to California residents at home, but you can use them when physically located in an eligible state.
California-specific guides
California's November 2026 Ballot: All 14 Propositions and What Prediction Markets Actually Price
Fourteen measures qualified for California's November 3, 2026 ballot: an $11.25B housing bond, a rainy-day amendment, and a permanent high-income tax. Here's what's on the ballot, what you can trade from California, and where the market gaps are.
Updated Aug 26, 2026
LeBron James Signed With the 76ers: How the Biggest NBA Prediction Market of 2026 Got It Wrong
The highest-volume NBA prediction market of 2026 has resolved, to the Philadelphia 76ers. Cleveland at 43%, Golden State at 21% and the Lakers under 1% all settled at zero. Here is what actually happened and the three lessons California traders should keep.
Updated Aug 25, 2026
World Cup 2026 Cinderellas: Morocco 2.35%, Switzerland 0.85%, Egypt 0.15%, Paraguay 0.05%
Four surprise 2026 World Cup teams, Morocco, Paraguay, Egypt, Switzerland, have combined for $19M+ in Polymarket volume in a week. Here's how California residents can trade the Cinderella bracket legally, where the sharpest edges are, and what could move prices this weekend.
Updated Aug 25, 2026
Spain Won the 2026 World Cup: How the $3.88B Winner Market Priced the Final
Polymarket's World Cup Winner contract cleared $3.88B, the biggest single-event prediction market ever, and it had France at 35.65% and Spain at roughly 7% going into the closing week. Spain lifted the trophy at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Here is how the market priced it, what the favorite-bias cost traders, and what California residents should carry into the next tournament cycle.
Updated Aug 26, 2026
NBA Free Agency 2026 on Prediction Markets: Cavaliers 52%, Warriors 18.5%, Lakers 0.55%
The 2026 NBA offseason is the deepest free-agency market prediction markets have ever seen, over $10.8M in a week on Polymarket. Cleveland is the base case, Golden State the volatility trade, LA the ghost. Here's how California fans can trade the whole offseason legally.
Updated Aug 24, 2026
Super Bowl LXI at SoFi 2027: NFL 2026 Season Odds & California Trading Guide
Polymarket's Super Bowl LXI contract has cleared $37.5M+ in cycle volume. Chargers 3.95%, Bengals 4.55%, Texans 3.7%. The championship comes to SoFi Stadium in February 2027: the second Super Bowl at SoFi in five years. Here's how California residents can trade the whole 2026 season legally.
Updated Aug 25, 2026
California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11
Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026. And you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.
Updated Aug 24, 2026
Is Robinhood's Prediction Market Legal in California? Yes, But Here's Where to Actually Trade
Robinhood's prediction market is legal in California because every contract clears through KalshiEX under CFTC rules. The catch: Robinhood is a thin UI over Kalshi with fewer markets and higher fees. California traders end up on Kalshi, Polymarket, or OG by Crypto.com.
Updated Aug 26, 2026
Is Sports Betting Legal in California? (2026 Guide)
No traditional online sportsbook is legal in California in 2026: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars are all geofenced out. But CFTC-regulated event contracts on the same NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL outcomes are legal under federal commodities law. Here's what's allowed, why, and how to use it.
Updated Aug 26, 2026California prediction-market FAQ
Are prediction markets legal in California?
Yes. CFTC-regulated event-contract platforms like Kalshi, Sleeper, Chalkboard, Novig, and Polymarket's iOS app operate legally in California under federal commodities law. They are not classified as gambling, so California's sports-betting ban does not apply.
Which platform is best for California residents?
Polymarket is our #1 overall pick for California traders: deepest live in-play book, CFTC-regulated, iPhone-first in the US. OG by Crypto.com is #2 with the largest welcome bonus and broad device support. Kalshi is #3, the broadest CFTC-regulated platform and best for politics. Rebet is #4 and Novig #5. Both travel-only for Californians. Chalkboard and Sleeper round out sports props and group-chat trading.
Do I have to pay California state tax on prediction-market winnings?
Yes. Prediction-market profits are taxable as ordinary income at both the federal and California state levels. Platforms typically issue a 1099 if your net winnings exceed reporting thresholds. See our prediction-market taxes guide for details.
Can I use Polymarket in California?
Yes, Polymarket relaunched a CFTC-regulated US app available on iPhone in 2025, and it is fully legal for California residents. The web version remains restricted in the US.
What is the difference between prediction markets and sports betting?
Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, classified as financial derivatives, not gambling. Sports betting is regulated state-by-state and remains illegal in California. Prediction markets bypass that ban because they fall under federal commodities law.
Where can I follow upcoming California-relevant markets?
Subscribe to our newsletter for weekly briefings on Lakers, Dodgers, Rams/Chargers, CA governor, ballot measures, and wildfire/rainfall contracts available to California traders.
Sources & further reading
Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked, open them and verify us.
- Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. § 1 et seq.)
The federal statute that preempts state gambling law for event contracts.
- California Secretary of State
Official source for California ballot measures, propositions, and certified election results.
- California Attorney General: gambling in California
The state's own summary of what is and isn't legal wagering in California.
- CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The federal regulator that authorizes and supervises every event-contract exchange we cover.
- National Council on Problem Gambling
Free, confidential help and self-assessment tools (1-800-522-4700).