Which California House races are on prediction markets in 2026?

Six: CA-22 (David Valadao), CA-27 (Mike Garcia), CA-41 (Ken Calvert), CA-45 (Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran rematch), CA-47 (Dave Min vs. Scott Baugh rematch), and CA-11 (the open seat after Speaker Pelosi's retirement). Kalshi lists all six as individual race contracts.

Is it legal for California residents to trade California political contracts?

Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket list California congressional contracts under CFTC commodities law, which preempts state-level election-betting restrictions. California residents 21+ can hold positions in any listed race contract.

Which California race is the closest?

CA-45 (Steel vs. Tran) is currently trading at roughly 49–51¢ on Kalshi — the tightest race-by-race contract in the state. Tran flipped the seat by about 600 votes in 2024 and 2026 looks similarly close.

Where can I trade these contracts?

Kalshi has the deepest race-by-race liquidity and lists all six California seats. Polymarket has cleaner pricing on the national House-control contract; its US race-by-race coverage is expanding. OG by Crypto.com offers the largest California welcome bonus (up to $100, code CAPREDICTS) for traders opening their first account.

How do California races affect the national House-control contract?

Six competitive California seats represent about 1.3% of the House but a disproportionate share of national toss-ups. A Democratic sweep of all six measurably shifts the national House-control contract on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Does the California governor's race affect the congressional contracts?

Yes — turnout correlation is strong, especially in Riverside County (CA-41) and Orange County (CA-45, CA-47). The CA Governor 2026 contract and the down-ballot House contracts tend to move together on big turnout signals.

Are there position limits on California congressional contracts?

Yes — CFTC-imposed limits apply, typically capping individual exposure on political contracts. Limits are most often relevant on the most actively traded seats (currently CA-45). Casual retail trades rarely approach them.

What is the maximum position size for California congressional contracts?

Kalshi imposes specific position limits on political contracts, often capped at $7 million for eligible contract participants or lower for retail traders. Polymarket generally has no hard caps on position sizes, but liquidity limits how much you can trade without significant slippage. California residents should check the individual contract specifications for the latest limit updates.

Why are some California House races missing from prediction markets?

Platforms only list races with significant public interest and available polling data. Highly competitive 'toss-up' districts like CA-27 or CA-45 are frequently listed due to high trading volume. Non-competitive districts with safe incumbents rarely appear because they lack the two-sided liquidity required for a functional prediction market.

Politics·10 min read

California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11

By Catie Di StefanoPublished June 29, 2026Updated August 17, 2026

Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026 — and you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.

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California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11

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Keep the loop going

This week's biggest prediction market movers

A live board of the biggest 7-day probability shifts across every market we track.

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What changed, and when

Dated log of offer, ranking and state-availability changes so you know how current a page is.

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Sources & further reading

Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked — open them and verify us.

Federal Election Commission
Candidate filings and campaign finance — how we confirm who is actually running.
California Secretary of State — elections
Certified California candidate lists, primary dates, and official results.
U.S. House of Representatives — roll of members
Current seat holders, used for California district-by-district coverage.
CFTC — Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The federal regulator that authorizes and supervises every event-contract exchange we cover.

Frequently asked questions

Which California House races are on prediction markets in 2026?: Six: CA-22 (David Valadao), CA-27 (Mike Garcia), CA-41 (Ken Calvert), CA-45 (Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran rematch), CA-47 (Dave Min vs. Scott Baugh rematch), and CA-11 (the open seat after Speaker Pelosi's retirement). Kalshi lists all six as individual race contracts.
Is it legal for California residents to trade California political contracts?: Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket list California congressional contracts under CFTC commodities law, which preempts state-level election-betting restrictions. California residents 21+ can hold positions in any listed race contract.
Which California race is the closest?: CA-45 (Steel vs. Tran) is currently trading at roughly 49–51¢ on Kalshi — the tightest race-by-race contract in the state. Tran flipped the seat by about 600 votes in 2024 and 2026 looks similarly close.
Where can I trade these contracts?: Kalshi has the deepest race-by-race liquidity and lists all six California seats. Polymarket has cleaner pricing on the national House-control contract; its US race-by-race coverage is expanding. OG by Crypto.com offers the largest California welcome bonus (up to $100, code CAPREDICTS) for traders opening their first account.
How do California races affect the national House-control contract?: Six competitive California seats represent about 1.3% of the House but a disproportionate share of national toss-ups. A Democratic sweep of all six measurably shifts the national House-control contract on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Does the California governor's race affect the congressional contracts?: Yes — turnout correlation is strong, especially in Riverside County (CA-41) and Orange County (CA-45, CA-47). The CA Governor 2026 contract and the down-ballot House contracts tend to move together on big turnout signals.
Are there position limits on California congressional contracts?: Yes — CFTC-imposed limits apply, typically capping individual exposure on political contracts. Limits are most often relevant on the most actively traded seats (currently CA-45). Casual retail trades rarely approach them.
What is the maximum position size for California congressional contracts?: Kalshi imposes specific position limits on political contracts, often capped at $7 million for eligible contract participants or lower for retail traders. Polymarket generally has no hard caps on position sizes, but liquidity limits how much you can trade without significant slippage. California residents should check the individual contract specifications for the latest limit updates.
Why are some California House races missing from prediction markets?: Platforms only list races with significant public interest and available polling data. Highly competitive 'toss-up' districts like CA-27 or CA-45 are frequently listed due to high trading volume. Non-competitive districts with safe incumbents rarely appear because they lack the two-sided liquidity required for a functional prediction market.