2028 Presidential Election Prediction Markets: PredictIt, Kalshi, Polymarket Guide

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The 2028 presidential election is the highest-volume prediction market in US history. Kalshi (opens in a new tab), Polymarket (opens in a new tab), and PredictIt collectively trade hundreds of millions of dollars on the Republican and Democratic nominees, the general election winner, the popular vote margin, the running mates, and dozens of state-level markets. For California traders, it's the deepest, most liquid contract on offer for the next two and a half years.

What 2028 markets are tradable right now?

Six categories of contracts dominate the volume:

Where's the liquidity?

Kalshi offers the deepest U.S.-regulated liquidity while Polymarket maintains the highest global volume and PredictIt provides stable but lower-volume legacy markets.

Kalshi has the deepest US-regulated liquidity on the major contracts and is the natural starting point for California traders. Polymarket carries higher absolute volume thanks to its global user base; US traders use its app. PredictIt has lower limits and lower volume but a long history of clean resolutions. For a wider breakdown, see these election market venues compared (opens in a new tab).

For aggregated odds across all platforms, ElectionBettingOdds (opens in a new tab) is the standard reference. Always cross-check pricing across platforms before sizing any meaningful position.

The 2028 race is the deepest, longest-running prediction market in the world. Volume only grows from here.

How does the market move?

Eight catalysts drive most repricings:

What about the California market specifically?

The California presidential market typically trades high for Democrats, while trader interest focuses on the margin of victory and its influence on down-ballot races.

California is the largest blue state and reliably votes Democratic in presidential elections. The state-level California presidential market typically trades at 85-95 cents YES Democrat. The interesting California market isn't the winner. It's the margin of victory and the down-ballot effect on the California governor 2026 race and Senate seats.

What's the read on current pricing?

Mid-2026 pricing depends primarily on political leadership and economic conditions, with significant market fluctuations expected as the candidate field narrows ahead of 2027.

Pricing as of mid-2026 is dominated by structural factors: which party holds the White House, current presidential approval ratings, and economic conditions. The candidate field will narrow significantly through 2027 as candidates announce or decline. The biggest single repricing event before primaries: any major candidate announcement or withdrawal.

How should I think about position sizing?

Three-year markets are different from one-week markets. Things to consider:

Is it legal to trade 2028 markets in California?

California residents can legally trade 2028 election markets through CFTC (opens in a new tab)-regulated platforms under federal commodities law following the agency's 2024 authorization.

Yes. CFTC-regulated platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket offer 2028 election contracts to California residents under federal commodities law. The CFTC's election contract authorization in late 2024 made political event contracts permanently legal at the federal level. For the full regulatory picture, see our California legality guide.

Where can I learn more?

Readers can find a detailed deep-dive on 2026 Senate control predictions and a technical primer on interpreting probability prices through the site's dedicated internal guides.

For a related deep-dive on Senate control in 2026, see Senate 2026 prediction markets. For a primer on how to actually read these prices, see reading probability prices.

About the author

Catie Di Stefano

Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years in the regulated gambling industry, starting at Betsson Group in Malta and spending nearly five years at Gaming Innovation Group (GiG) before building an independent consultancy across European and US iGaming brands, including a licensed engagement with Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City under a New Jersey DGE vendor license. She's been interviewed by the California Business Journal on the rise of online gambling in the US, and spoke on a 2022 Next.io panel specifically about California's gaming market. She went on to build the OnlineGamblers.com brand and hold marketing director roles at Smartico.ai and Vegas Kings, and has been named to multiple iGamingExpress industry rankings. She now covers regulated prediction markets full-time.

Editorial standards: How we research and rank

Does PredictIt have 2028 election markets?

Yes. PredictIt lists 2028 presidential nominee and general election markets under its CFTC no-action letter, with an $850 position cap per market. For deeper liquidity without caps, Kalshi and Polymarket offer the same 2028 contracts to US traders.

PredictIt vs Kalshi vs Polymarket for 2028. Which is best?

Kalshi has the deepest US-regulated liquidity and no position caps. Polymarket carries the highest global volume thanks to its large user base. PredictIt has the longest 2028 history but $850 per-market caps that limit serious trading. Most California traders use Kalshi or Polymarket for size and PredictIt only for pricing reference.

Is it legal to trade 2028 election markets in California?

Available, dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). CFTC-regulated platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt offer 2028 election contracts to California residents under federal commodities law.

Where's the deepest liquidity?

Kalshi has the deepest US-regulated liquidity. Polymarket carries higher absolute volume thanks to its global user base. PredictIt has lower volume but a long history of clean resolutions.

What contracts are tradable?

General election winner, Republican and Democratic nominees, vice presidential picks, popular vote winner, and state-level markets for the major swing states.

What moves the market?

High-quality polls, debate performances, primary results (Iowa, NH, Super Tuesday), VP announcements, legal and health events, convention bumps, and election night calls.

How is California priced?

California reliably trades at 85-95 cents YES Democrat in presidential elections. The interesting California angle is margin of victory and down-ballot effects on the 2026 governor race.

Which platform has the highest limit for 2028 Presidential contracts?

Polymarket often has the deepest order books on 2028 election markets thanks to its large user base. Kalshi, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, sets position limits under federal rules. For large California positions, check the order book depth on both platforms before you trade.

Are 2028 election markets on Kalshi considered legal under California law?

Available, dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026), because Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC, its event contracts are available to eligible California residents (dispute pending). This differs from online sportsbooks, which remain illegal following the failure of Propositions 26 and 27. The contracts are classified as financial instruments rather than prohibited gambling under state statutes.