What are the current LA Mayor 2026 odds?

As of August 7, 2026, Polymarket prices Karen Bass at 65.5% to win the November 3 runoff and Nithya Raman at 31.1%. The Los Angeles Mayoral Election event has cleared $13.1M in total volume, making it the deepest municipal contract in the country. The two live prices sum to 96.6%, leaving about 3 points of fee-and-liquidity slack.

What happened in the June first round?

Bass finished first and the margin market settled in the 5-10 point bucket over Raman. No candidate cleared 50%, so LA's top-two rule sent Bass and Raman to a November 3 runoff. The 'Bass and Raman advance' contract settled YES; the Bass-and-Pratt pairing, which had drawn $1.6M, settled NO.

Why is Bass still trading below the incumbent baseline?

A sitting Democratic mayor usually carries 75-85¢ into a general election; Bass sits at 65.5¢. Two factors keep the discount in place: the 2025 Pacific Palisades wildfire put the LAFD response under a national microscope, and subsequent reporting on alleged Mayor's-office edits to draft after-action findings damaged her standing; and LA faces a near-$1B FY26 budget gap, with service cuts and hiring pauses depressing incumbent enthusiasm.

Can I trade the LA Mayor runoff from California?

Yes. Polymarket lists single-candidate win contracts on Bass and Raman; Kalshi runs the same race through its multi-candidate winner market (kxmayorla-26). Both are CFTC-regulated event-contract venues, legal for California residents 21 and older under federal commodities law.

Is the runoff contract still tradable?

No, it resolved. Both 'Will the LA Mayor race go to a November runoff?' and 'Will Bass and Raman advance to the second round?' settled YES in June, so the pre-June income trade on those markets is gone. The live trade is now the spread between Bass at 65.5¢ and Raman at 31.1¢.

What catalysts move Bass's price before November 3?

The first head-to-head public poll (LA Times, Berkeley IGS), which is a different instrument from spring multi-way polling and should move both contracts 5-10¢; where the Spencer Pratt vote goes, since nearly $7.9M traded on his candidacy and his voters are now unassigned; union endorsement flow, especially police or firefighter defection over wildfire fallout; televised runoff debates; and October 5, when California mails ballots to every registered voter.

Should I buy Bass or sell her at 65.5¢?

From 65.5¢ the incumbency-dip trade is less forgiving than it was at 50¢. If you think the race tightens without believing Raman wins outright, buying Raman is usually the cleaner expression: her book is the deeper of the two, so slippage is lower, and a 5-point tightening pays more on a 31¢ contract than the mirror trade pays at 65¢.

Where can I see Pacific-coast political market coverage?

VenicePredictions.com tracks Pacific-coast prediction-market angles including LA political races. PredictionWins.com tracks outcome-focused Kalshi vs Polymarket spreads on the same contracts.

How does California treat prediction market gains for local elections?

California treats these earnings as capital gains. If you trade Karen Bass contracts on Kalshi, the platform will issue a 1099-B. If you trade on Polymarket, you are responsible for tracking the cost basis and sale price of your positions to report the net profit on your annual state tax filings.

Can I use a credit card to buy LA Mayor contracts?

Kalshi allows deposits via linked bank accounts, wire transfers, or debit cards, but generally does not support credit cards due to processing restrictions. Polymarket requires USDC, which most California users acquire by purchasing crypto on an exchange like Coinbase using a bank transfer before sending it to their wallet.

Politics·7 min read

Karen Bass LA Mayor Runoff Odds: 65.5% vs Nithya Raman

By Catie Di StefanoPublished June 12, 2026Updated August 25, 2026

Bass won the June first round but never cleared 50%, so Los Angeles goes to a November runoff against Nithya Raman. Polymarket prices Bass at 65.5% and Raman at 31.1% on a $13.1M event book, still a discount to the usual incumbent baseline.

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TL;DR

Karen Bass finished first in the June 2026 LA Mayor first round with a 5-10 point margin over Nithya Raman, and because no candidate cleared 50% the race advanced to a November 3 runoff. As of August 7, 2026, Polymarket prices Bass at 65.5% to win and Raman at 31.1%, on a Los Angeles Mayoral Election event that has cleared $13.1M. Bass's win contract holds $737K of volume, Raman's holds $1.26M. The underdog book is deeper. Spencer Pratt, the most-traded contract of the cycle at nearly $7.9M, settled NO along with Lindsey Horvath, Rick Caruso, Rae Huang and Gina Viola. Bass still trades below the 75-85¢ a sitting Democratic mayor usually carries into a general, priced off the 2025 Pacific Palisades wildfire response and a near-$1B FY26 budget gap. The pre-June runoff and advancement contracts have resolved; what remains is the Bass-Raman spread. CFTC-regulated and legal for California residents 21+.

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Karen Bass LA Mayor Runoff Odds: 65.5% vs Nithya Raman

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current LA Mayor 2026 odds?: As of August 7, 2026, Polymarket prices Karen Bass at 65.5% to win the November 3 runoff and Nithya Raman at 31.1%. The Los Angeles Mayoral Election event has cleared $13.1M in total volume, making it the deepest municipal contract in the country. The two live prices sum to 96.6%, leaving about 3 points of fee-and-liquidity slack.
What happened in the June first round?: Bass finished first and the margin market settled in the 5-10 point bucket over Raman. No candidate cleared 50%, so LA's top-two rule sent Bass and Raman to a November 3 runoff. The 'Bass and Raman advance' contract settled YES; the Bass-and-Pratt pairing, which had drawn $1.6M, settled NO.
Why is Bass still trading below the incumbent baseline?: A sitting Democratic mayor usually carries 75-85¢ into a general election; Bass sits at 65.5¢. Two factors keep the discount in place: the 2025 Pacific Palisades wildfire put the LAFD response under a national microscope, and subsequent reporting on alleged Mayor's-office edits to draft after-action findings damaged her standing; and LA faces a near-$1B FY26 budget gap, with service cuts and hiring pauses depressing incumbent enthusiasm.
Can I trade the LA Mayor runoff from California?: Yes. Polymarket lists single-candidate win contracts on Bass and Raman; Kalshi runs the same race through its multi-candidate winner market (kxmayorla-26). Both are CFTC-regulated event-contract venues, legal for California residents 21 and older under federal commodities law.
Is the runoff contract still tradable?: No, it resolved. Both 'Will the LA Mayor race go to a November runoff?' and 'Will Bass and Raman advance to the second round?' settled YES in June, so the pre-June income trade on those markets is gone. The live trade is now the spread between Bass at 65.5¢ and Raman at 31.1¢.
What catalysts move Bass's price before November 3?: The first head-to-head public poll (LA Times, Berkeley IGS), which is a different instrument from spring multi-way polling and should move both contracts 5-10¢; where the Spencer Pratt vote goes, since nearly $7.9M traded on his candidacy and his voters are now unassigned; union endorsement flow, especially police or firefighter defection over wildfire fallout; televised runoff debates; and October 5, when California mails ballots to every registered voter.
Should I buy Bass or sell her at 65.5¢?: From 65.5¢ the incumbency-dip trade is less forgiving than it was at 50¢. If you think the race tightens without believing Raman wins outright, buying Raman is usually the cleaner expression: her book is the deeper of the two, so slippage is lower, and a 5-point tightening pays more on a 31¢ contract than the mirror trade pays at 65¢.
Where can I see Pacific-coast political market coverage?: VenicePredictions.com tracks Pacific-coast prediction-market angles including LA political races. PredictionWins.com tracks outcome-focused Kalshi vs Polymarket spreads on the same contracts.
How does California treat prediction market gains for local elections?: California treats these earnings as capital gains. If you trade Karen Bass contracts on Kalshi, the platform will issue a 1099-B. If you trade on Polymarket, you are responsible for tracking the cost basis and sale price of your positions to report the net profit on your annual state tax filings.
Can I use a credit card to buy LA Mayor contracts?: Kalshi allows deposits via linked bank accounts, wire transfers, or debit cards, but generally does not support credit cards due to processing restrictions. Polymarket requires USDC, which most California users acquire by purchasing crypto on an exchange like Coinbase using a bank transfer before sending it to their wallet.

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