Which California House races are on prediction markets in 2026?

Six: CA-22 (David Valadao), CA-27 (Mike Garcia), CA-41 (Ken Calvert), CA-45 (Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran rematch), CA-47 (Dave Min vs. Scott Baugh rematch), and CA-11 (the open seat after Speaker Pelosi's retirement). Kalshi lists all six as individual race contracts.

Is it legal for California residents to trade California political contracts?

Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket list California congressional contracts under CFTC commodities law, which preempts state-level election-betting restrictions. California residents 18+ can hold positions in any listed race contract.

Which California race is the closest?

CA-45 (Steel vs. Tran) is currently trading at roughly 49–51¢ on Kalshi — the tightest race-by-race contract in the state. Tran flipped the seat by about 600 votes in 2024 and 2026 looks similarly close.

Where can I trade these contracts?

Kalshi has the deepest race-by-race liquidity and lists all six California seats. Polymarket has cleaner pricing on the national House-control contract; its US race-by-race coverage is expanding. OG by Crypto.com offers the largest California welcome bonus (up to $100, code CAPREDICTS) for traders opening their first account.

How do California races affect the national House-control contract?

Six competitive California seats represent about 1.3% of the House but a disproportionate share of national toss-ups. A Democratic sweep of all six measurably shifts the national House-control contract on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Does the California governor's race affect the congressional contracts?

Yes — turnout correlation is strong, especially in Riverside County (CA-41) and Orange County (CA-45, CA-47). The CA Governor 2026 contract and the down-ballot House contracts tend to move together on big turnout signals.

Are there position limits on California congressional contracts?

Yes — CFTC-imposed limits apply, typically capping individual exposure on political contracts. Limits are most often relevant on the most actively traded seats (currently CA-45). Casual retail trades rarely approach them.

Politics·10 min read

California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11

Ni Catie Di StefanoNai-publish June 29, 2026Na-update June 29, 2026

Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026 — and you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.

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California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11

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Which California House races are on prediction markets in 2026?: Six: CA-22 (David Valadao), CA-27 (Mike Garcia), CA-41 (Ken Calvert), CA-45 (Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran rematch), CA-47 (Dave Min vs. Scott Baugh rematch), and CA-11 (the open seat after Speaker Pelosi's retirement). Kalshi lists all six as individual race contracts.
Is it legal for California residents to trade California political contracts?: Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket list California congressional contracts under CFTC commodities law, which preempts state-level election-betting restrictions. California residents 18+ can hold positions in any listed race contract.
Which California race is the closest?: CA-45 (Steel vs. Tran) is currently trading at roughly 49–51¢ on Kalshi — the tightest race-by-race contract in the state. Tran flipped the seat by about 600 votes in 2024 and 2026 looks similarly close.
Where can I trade these contracts?: Kalshi has the deepest race-by-race liquidity and lists all six California seats. Polymarket has cleaner pricing on the national House-control contract; its US race-by-race coverage is expanding. OG by Crypto.com offers the largest California welcome bonus (up to $100, code CAPREDICTS) for traders opening their first account.
How do California races affect the national House-control contract?: Six competitive California seats represent about 1.3% of the House but a disproportionate share of national toss-ups. A Democratic sweep of all six measurably shifts the national House-control contract on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Does the California governor's race affect the congressional contracts?: Yes — turnout correlation is strong, especially in Riverside County (CA-41) and Orange County (CA-45, CA-47). The CA Governor 2026 contract and the down-ballot House contracts tend to move together on big turnout signals.
Are there position limits on California congressional contracts?: Yes — CFTC-imposed limits apply, typically capping individual exposure on political contracts. Limits are most often relevant on the most actively traded seats (currently CA-45). Casual retail trades rarely approach them.