Explainer·9 min read
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Launching Perpetual Futures. Here's What That Actually Means
On April 22, 2026, Marketplace reported both major US prediction markets are preparing to offer perpetual futures: a leveraged, no-expiration derivative that until now has only existed offshore. Here's what they are, why now, and whether you should care.
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Sources & further reading
Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked, open them and verify us.
- CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The federal regulator that authorizes and supervises every event-contract exchange we cover.
- CFTC designated contract markets registry
Official list of registered exchanges, where we verify a platform's DCM status.
- Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. § 1 et seq.)
The federal statute that preempts state gambling law for event contracts.
Frequently asked questions
What is a perpetual future?
- A leveraged derivative contract that lets you go long or short on an asset (typically crypto, soon equity indexes) without an expiration date. The price is kept in line with the underlying via a 'funding rate' paid every 8 hours between long and short holders. Unlike Kalshi event contracts, perpetuals use leverage and have no fixed resolution.
How are perpetuals different from sports event contracts?
- Five key differences: perpetuals use leverage (typically 5-20x); they have no expiration date; they require ongoing funding-rate payments; they can be liquidated if margin drops below the maintenance threshold; and they settle continuously off a price index rather than a binary outcome.
When will Kalshi and Polymarket launch perpetuals?
- Industry reporting suggests summer 2026 for the initial launches, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals. Index perpetuals (S&P 500, Nasdaq) likely follow. Single-stock perpetuals are slower because of tighter US regulatory rules. Event-driven perpetuals on probabilities like Fed-cut odds are the most innovative and untested category.
Are perpetuals legal in California?
- If launched on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket's US arm, yes. California traders will have legal access. Offshore perpetuals on Binance, Bybit, and similar venues remain illegal for US persons.
Should I trade perpetuals?
- Probably not if you currently trade event contracts for entertainment. Perpetuals require active position management, real margin discipline, and tolerance for liquidation risk. They're appropriate for active crypto traders, sharp macro traders, and professionals: not casual users.
What's the biggest risk?
- Liquidation cascades. In offshore crypto, perpetual liquidations have wiped out billions in retail positions during single-hour market events. US-regulated venues will have stricter margin requirements but the underlying risk is the same. Funding-rate drag is the second biggest hidden cost. Sustained one-sided markets eat into returns even when your direction is right.
How are perpetuals taxed?
- Tax treatment is unsettled. Perpetuals don't fit neatly into the 60/40 long-term/short-term capital gains treatment that traditional futures get. Expect more record-keeping, more accountant time, and IRS guidance to evolve over the next 1-2 years.
What are the funding rate costs for California prediction market perpetuals?
- Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep the contract price aligned with the underlying event index. These fees are not fixed commissions but vary based on market demand. On platforms like Polymarket, these are deducted or added to your position balance automatically every hour or eight-hour cycle depending on the specific contract specifications.
Which platform offers the highest leverage for event perpetuals?
- Polymarket is the primary destination for decentralized perpetuals, often allowing for higher capital efficiency than Kalshi. However, Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, meaning its margin requirements and leverage limits must adhere to federal oversight. California residents should prioritize Polymarket for liquidity or Kalshi for the legal protections afforded by U.S. clearinghouse regulations and oversight.
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Top platforms Californians are using:
Polymarket
The world's largest prediction market, now live on iPhone in the US.
21+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
The regulatory leader.
Sign up at KalshiCertain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 21+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
OG (by Crypto.com)
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