Kalshi and Polymarket Are Launching Perpetual Futures. Here's What That Actually Means

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1. What is a perpetual future?
2. Why launch them now?
3. What contracts will launch first?
4. How is this different from a sports contract?
5. Should California traders be excited?
6. Risk warnings worth taking seriously
7. What we're watching

Archived report: written in April 2026. Prices and details are as of then, not live.

On April 22, 2026, Marketplace reported that Kalshi (opens in a new tab) and Polymarket (opens in a new tab) are both preparing to launch perpetual futures: a derivative product that, until now, has only been available on offshore crypto exchanges. For California traders used to binary YES/NO event contracts, perpetuals are a different animal entirely. Here's what they are, why both platforms are racing to offer them, and whether you should care.

Quick warning up front: perpetual futures use leverage, have no expiration date, and have wiped out more retail traders than any other crypto product in the last five years. This is not a beginner instrument.

What is a perpetual future?

A perpetual future is a leveraged contract that lets you go long or short on an asset without an expiration date, with the price kept in line with the underlying via a periodic 'funding rate' paid between long and short holders.

Compare this to a Kalshi event contract. A Kalshi 'Will the Fed cut rates in May?' contract has a fixed resolution date, a fixed payout ($1 if YES, $0 if NO), and no leverage. Your max loss is what you paid.

A perpetual future on, say, Bitcoin or the S&P 500 lets you put down 5% margin to control 20x exposure, hold the position indefinitely, and pay or receive funding every 8 hours based on whether the perpetual is trading above or below spot.

Offshore exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX have offered perpetuals on crypto since 2016. US-regulated venues like CME and Coinbase Derivatives have only offered traditional dated futures. Kalshi and Polymarket would be the first US-regulated platforms to offer perpetuals at all.

Why launch them now?

Three reasons.

Volume. Perpetual futures are by far the highest-volume product in global crypto trading, frequently 5-10x the daily volume of spot exchanges. Even capturing 1-2% of that flow would dwarf the current event-contract revenue base for both platforms.

Regulatory window. The CFTC (opens in a new tab)'s March 12, 2026 prediction markets advisory and the February withdrawal of the 2024 event-contracts rule have created the most permissive federal regulatory environment in years. Both platforms are racing to launch new product categories before any restrictive rulemaking arrives in late 2026.

Defensive positioning. Coinbase Derivatives, Robinhood, and several others are reportedly close to offering similar products. Kalshi and Polymarket need to be in the perpetuals market to defend their flow.

What contracts will launch first?

Marketplace's reporting and subsequent industry coverage suggest the initial launches will focus on:

Contract Type	Launch Prospect
Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals	on both Kalshi and Polymarket: the highest-volume contracts globally and the easiest to price.
Index perpetuals	(S&P 500, Nasdaq). Kalshi has been more aggressive on macro/index products historically.
Single-stock perpetuals	possible later in 2026, but US regulatory rules around single-stock futures are tighter, so this is the slowest path.
Event-driven perpetuals	the most innovative and untested category. A perpetual on something like 'probability of a Fed cut in the next 90 days' would blend event-contract logic with funding-rate mechanics.

Perpetuals don't expire. Which means losses don't either. A position that goes against you compounds via funding payments until you close it.

How is this different from a sports contract?

Five ways:

Feature	Sports vs. Perpetual
Leverage.	Sports contracts have no leverage. Perpetuals routinely offer 5-20x.
No expiration.	A sports contract resolves when the game ends. A perpetual is open until you close it. And your unrealized loss can grow without bound.
Funding rates.	Every 8 hours, longs pay shorts (or vice versa) a funding rate that keeps the perpetual price tethered to spot. If you're long during a sustained bull move, you pay funding. If you're short, you receive it. This is a recurring cost most retail traders underestimate.
Liquidations.	If your margin falls below the maintenance threshold, the exchange auto-liquidates your position at market. Sports contracts have no liquidation mechanism. You can hold to resolution regardless of intermediate price moves.
Settlement.	Sports contracts settle to a clear binary outcome. Perpetuals settle continuously based on a price index that the platform constructs from underlying spot venues.

Should California traders be excited?

It depends entirely on what you trade today.

If you trade event contracts for entertainment, NBA Finals, Oscars, Fed decisions, perpetuals are not for you. They require continuous monitoring, real margin management, and a stomach for liquidation risk. Stick with binary contracts.

If you actively trade crypto on Coinbase, Kraken, or offshore exchanges, US-regulated perpetuals on Kalshi or Polymarket could be a meaningful upgrade: federal oversight, on-shore custody, no offshore KYC complications. The trade-off is that early-launch fees, spreads, and depth will likely lag offshore venues for the first 6-12 months.

If you're a sharp macro trader, the most interesting product is event-driven perpetuals. Combining the resolvable-thesis logic of event contracts with continuous mark-to-market. That's a genuinely new instrument and worth watching.

Risk warnings worth taking seriously

Three.

Liquidation cascades. In offshore crypto, perpetual liquidation cascades have wiped out billions of dollars in retail positions in single hours. US-regulated venues will have stricter margin requirements, but the underlying risk is the same.

Funding-rate drag. Holding a perpetual through a one-sided market eats into returns even when the directional thesis is right. Many traders have been correct on direction and still lost money to cumulative funding.

Tax complexity. Perpetuals don't fit neatly into the 60/40 long-term/short-term capital gains treatment that traditional futures get. Treatment is unsettled at the IRS level, which means more record-keeping and more accountant time. See our California prediction-market taxes guide for the related event-contract tax discussion.

What we're watching

Three signals over the next 90 days:

• Launch dates. Both platforms have signaled summer 2026. The first to ship at scale captures the most retail flow.
• Initial margin requirements. US-regulated perpetuals will likely have more conservative margin than offshore (5x or 10x rather than 50x or 100x). The exact number tells us how aggressive the CFTC is willing to let this product be.
• Event-driven perpetuals. If either platform launches a perpetual on a non-financial outcome (election odds, sports championship probability, Fed cut probability), that's the most consequential product innovation of the year.

For now, sports and event contracts on Kalshi and the others remain the right instrument for almost every California retail trader. Perpetuals are coming. Just don't be in a hurry to be the first one in the pool.

Trade responsibly: 1-800-GAMBLER or ncpgambling.org (opens in a new tab).

Frequently asked questions

What is a perpetual future?

A leveraged derivative contract that lets you go long or short on an asset (typically crypto, soon equity indexes) without an expiration date. The price is kept in line with the underlying via a 'funding rate' paid every 8 hours between long and short holders. Unlike Kalshi event contracts, perpetuals use leverage and have no fixed resolution.

How are perpetuals different from sports event contracts?

Five key differences: perpetuals use leverage (typically 5-20x); they have no expiration date; they require ongoing funding-rate payments; they can be liquidated if margin drops below the maintenance threshold; and they settle continuously off a price index rather than a binary outcome.

When will Kalshi and Polymarket launch perpetuals?

Industry reporting suggests summer 2026 for the initial launches, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals. Index perpetuals (S&P 500, Nasdaq) likely follow. Single-stock perpetuals are slower because of tighter US regulatory rules. Event-driven perpetuals on probabilities like Fed-cut odds are the most innovative and untested category.

Are perpetuals legal in California?

If launched on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket's US arm, yes. California traders will have legal access. Offshore perpetuals on Binance, Bybit, and similar venues remain illegal for US persons.

Should I trade perpetuals?

Probably not if you currently trade event contracts for entertainment. Perpetuals require active position management, real margin discipline, and tolerance for liquidation risk. They're appropriate for active crypto traders, sharp macro traders, and professionals: not casual users.

What's the biggest risk?

Liquidation cascades. In offshore crypto, perpetual liquidations have wiped out billions in retail positions during single-hour market events. US-regulated venues will have stricter margin requirements but the underlying risk is the same. Funding-rate drag is the second biggest hidden cost. Sustained one-sided markets eat into returns even when your direction is right.

How are perpetuals taxed?

Tax treatment is unsettled. Perpetuals don't fit neatly into the 60/40 long-term/short-term capital gains treatment that traditional futures get. Expect more record-keeping, more accountant time, and IRS guidance to evolve over the next 1-2 years.

What are the funding rate costs for California prediction market perpetuals?

Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep the contract price aligned with the underlying event index. These fees are not fixed commissions but vary based on market demand. On platforms like Polymarket, these are deducted or added to your position balance automatically every hour or eight-hour cycle depending on the specific contract specifications.

Which platform offers the highest leverage for event perpetuals?

Leverage and margin on event contracts at CFTC-regulated venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket US are set under federal rules, so check each platform's current product terms before you trade. California residents should weigh liquidity alongside the protections of a US-regulated clearinghouse.