Category · Politics
Politics prediction markets.
California governor 2026, ballot measures, presidential markets, and legal political event contracts available to California traders.
How Prediction Markets Price Celebrity Longshots: The Spencer Pratt Case Study
Spencer Pratt is the most-traded longshot of the 2026 California cycle, sitting at 12-28% on Kalshi and Polymarket for the June 2 LA Mayor election. The number says less about his odds than about how shallow markets price celebrity flow.
Updated Sep 7, 2026
California Governor 2026: How to Trade the Race on Prediction Markets
Gavin Newsom is termed out. The June 2 primary narrows a crowded field to two; the November general decides who runs the world's fifth-largest economy. Here's how California traders can take a position on the race.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
2028 Presidential Election Prediction Markets: PredictIt, Kalshi, Polymarket Guide
The 2028 race is the deepest political contract on prediction markets. Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt collectively trade nine figures. Here's how to read it from California.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
Senate Control 2026 Prediction Markets: The California Read
Over $5.9M wagered across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Betfair on Senate control. Here's which seats actually matter and how to trade them from California.
Updated Sep 7, 2026
The Feds Are Suing 4 States Over Prediction Markets. Here's Why California Isn't One
The DOJ and CFTC have sued New York, Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois for trying to regulate Kalshi and Polymarket. California's absence from that list is the story. And it's why CA traders enjoy uniquely stable access right now.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
Newsom's California vs Kalshi: What the May 2026 State-Level Push Means for CA Traders
On May 18, 2026 a coalition led by tribal gaming groups and backed by Governor Newsom's office asked California's Attorney General to investigate Kalshi and Polymarket. Here's why the legal mechanics underneath the headlines are weak, and why California traders should keep operating normally.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
Karen Bass LA Mayor Runoff Odds: 65.5% vs Nithya Raman
Bass won the June first round but never cleared 50%, so Los Angeles goes to a November runoff against Nithya Raman. Polymarket prices Bass at 65.5% and Raman at 31.1% on a $13.1M event book, still a discount to the usual incumbent baseline.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
Nithya Raman LA Mayor Runoff: 31.1% Against Karen Bass
Raman polled 9% in April, advanced out of the June first round, and now trades at 31.1% for the November runoff: a 3x repricing in two months, on a book deeper than the favorite's.
Updated Sep 7, 2026
California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11
Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026. And you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.
Updated Sep 6, 2026
California's November 2026 Ballot: All 14 Propositions and What Prediction Markets Actually Price
Fourteen measures qualified for California's November 3, 2026 ballot: an $11.25B housing bond, a rainy-day amendment, and a permanent high-income tax. Here's what's on the ballot, what you can trade from California, and where the market gaps are.
Updated Sep 7, 2026
House Control 2026 Prediction Markets: Democrats 87.5% and California's 52 Seats
Polymarket's House control contract has cleared $9.1M with Democrats at 87.5% and Republicans at 13.5%. California decides 52 of the 435 seats: more than any other state. Here's how to read and trade it legally from California.
Updated Sep 6, 2026