Basics·5 min read
Reading probability prices: a 5-minute primer
By Catie Di StefanoPublished January 5, 2026Updated July 15, 2026
Why 62¢ is the same as +61 in American odds — and why you'll never want to go back.
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Frequently asked questions
What does a 62¢ contract mean?
- It means the market thinks there's a 62% probability the event happens. If you buy and the event occurs, you collect $1. If not, you lose your 62¢.
How do I convert American odds to probability prices?
- Negative odds: divide the absolute value by (absolute value + 100). Positive odds: divide 100 by (odds + 100). The result, in percent, equals the equivalent contract price in cents. So -150 ≈ 60¢ and +250 ≈ 28.6¢.
Why are probability prices clearer than American odds?
- Probability prices show the market's exact view with no hidden margin. YES and NO add up to exactly 100¢ on a CFTC-regulated exchange. American odds bake in a 4–5% vig that obscures true probability.
Do YES and NO always add to 100¢?
- Yes, by construction. If YES is 62¢, NO is 38¢. The platform charges a small disclosed fee per fill instead of hiding it inside the price.
What is the bid-ask spread on prediction markets?
- The difference between the highest buy order and lowest sell order. Deep markets like Super Bowl winner often run a 1¢ spread; thin or far-future markets can run 5–10¢ wide.
Can I sell my position before the event resolves?
- Yes. Anytime liquidity exists, you can sell back into the order book and lock in gains or cut losses — something traditional sportsbooks rarely allow cleanly.
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