Guides
Spain Won the 2026 World Cup: How the $3.88B Winner Market Priced the Final
Spain won the 2026 World Cup as a ~7% longshot as France (35.65%) and Argentina (16.15%) settled at zero. How Polymarket's $3.88B market priced it.
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Recap: World Cup 2026 Cinderellas: Morocco 2.35%, Switzerland 0.85%, Egypt 0.15%, Paraguay 0.05%
Four surprise 2026 World Cup teams, Morocco, Paraguay, Egypt, Switzerland, have combined for $19M+ in Polymarket volume in a week. Here's how California residents can trade the Cinderella bracket legally, where the sharpest edges are, and what could move prices this weekend.
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LeBron James Signed With the 76ers: How the Biggest NBA Prediction Market of 2026 Got It Wrong
The highest-volume NBA prediction market of 2026 has resolved, to the Philadelphia 76ers. Cleveland at 43%, Golden State at 21% and the Lakers under 1% all settled at zero. Here is what actually happened and the three lessons California traders should keep.
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California 2026 Congressional Races on Prediction Markets: CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-11
Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026. And you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.
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Robinhood Prediction Markets in California: What to Know
Robinhood's prediction market is legal in California because every contract clears through KalshiEX under CFTC rules. The catch: Robinhood is a thin UI over Kalshi with fewer markets and higher fees. California traders end up on Kalshi, Polymarket, or OG by Crypto.com.
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Recap: USA World Cup 2026 Knockout Odds: Where the Home-Flow Premium Lives
USMNT is the highest-volume retail contract on US prediction markets for the entire World Cup. Home flow keeps the US 3-5 points above sharp model consensus across every round. Here's the knockout playbook.
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Recap: World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: The 4 Most Under-Priced Contenders
Top-five contenders are priced tight. The real edge lives in the 2-7% YES band where narrative drag, easy bracket paths, and generational keepers create persistent mispricings. Four dark horses worth a position.
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Recap: World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Odds: Where the Curse-Breaker Trades Live
The round of 16 is the first knockout round where every match is between two teams that survived. Mexico, USA, Japan, historic-ceiling nations, trade 4-7 points below model fair value. Here's the round-of-16 playbook.
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Recap: World Cup 2026 Bracket Predictions: How to Trade the Knockout Path
The 2026 World Cup bracket adds a round of 32: six knockout rounds instead of four. Prediction markets reprice the bracket the moment it locks on June 27. Here's where the structural edge lives.
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Recession Odds 2026: Trading the NBER Contract from California
Polymarket's 'US recession in 2026' contract trades at 22-34% YES, well above the unconditional 15% base rate. For California traders whose payrolls run 1.4-1.8x the national beta, recession YES is the cleanest macro hedge on the board.
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Padres 2026 Season Recap: How the Markets Saw San Diego
The Padres' 2026 season is over: they swept the Cubs, then lost the NL Division Series to the Brewers. How their World Series and NL West contracts traded before that.
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UCLA Football 2026 Odds: The Cheapest Pac-Side Futures on the Board
UCLA opens 2026 below 1¢ (under a 1% chance) for the national championship and 5.5-6.5 wins on the over/under: a structurally low line for a Power 4 program with a returning QB. Thin books, but the over is the cleanest trade on the Bruin side.