Plain-English guides for California traders: how event contracts work, which apps are available, taxes, deposits, withdrawals and what to trade.
The 2026 NBA offseason is the deepest free-agency market prediction markets have ever seen, over $10.8M in a week on Polymarket. Cleveland is the base case, Golden State the volatility trade, LA the ghost. Here's how California fans can trade the whole offseason legally.
Spain won the 2026 World Cup as a ~7% longshot as France (35.65%) and Argentina (16.15%) settled at zero. How Polymarket's $3.88B market priced it.
Four surprise 2026 World Cup teams, Morocco, Paraguay, Egypt, Switzerland, have combined for $19M+ in Polymarket volume in a week. Here's how California residents can trade the Cinderella bracket legally, where the sharpest edges are, and what could move prices this weekend.
The highest-volume NBA prediction market of 2026 has resolved, to the Philadelphia 76ers. Cleveland at 43%, Golden State at 21% and the Lakers under 1% all settled at zero. Here is what actually happened and the three lessons California traders should keep.
Six California House seats will probably decide House control in 2026. And you can trade every one of them on Kalshi and Polymarket from California. Current odds, what moves them, and where to actually place the trade.
Robinhood's prediction market is legal in California because every contract clears through KalshiEX under CFTC rules. The catch: Robinhood is a thin UI over Kalshi with fewer markets and higher fees. California traders end up on Kalshi, Polymarket, or OG by Crypto.com.
USMNT is the highest-volume retail contract on US prediction markets for the entire World Cup. Home flow keeps the US 3-5 points above sharp model consensus across every round. Here's the knockout playbook.
Top-five contenders are priced tight. The real edge lives in the 2-7% YES band where narrative drag, easy bracket paths, and generational keepers create persistent mispricings. Four dark horses worth a position.
The round of 16 is the first knockout round where every match is between two teams that survived. Mexico, USA, Japan, historic-ceiling nations, trade 4-7 points below model fair value. Here's the round-of-16 playbook.
The 2026 World Cup bracket adds a round of 32: six knockout rounds instead of four. Prediction markets reprice the bracket the moment it locks on June 27. Here's where the structural edge lives.
Polymarket's 'US recession in 2026' contract trades at 22-34% YES, well above the unconditional 15% base rate. For California traders whose payrolls run 1.4-1.8x the national beta, recession YES is the cleanest macro hedge on the board.
The Padres' 2026 season is over: they swept the Cubs, then lost the NL Division Series to the Brewers. How their World Series and NL West contracts traded before that.
