California's long count: when election markets settle after November 3

On this page · 5

1. Why California takes weeks to count
2. Key dates for the November 3, 2026 count
3. Where to see how many ballots are left
4. When do Kalshi and Polymarket US governor markets settle?
5. Where to trade

Why California takes weeks to count

Polls close at 8 p.m. PT on November 3, 2026. The totals you see that night are semi-official. They cover in-person votes, early votes and mail ballots that counties processed before Election Day. Counties report to the Secretary of State at least every two hours that night until that first count is done.

What's left is mostly mail. A ballot postmarked by Election Day still counts if it reaches the county by November 10. Each one needs a registration check, a signature match against the voter's file, and a check that the person didn't vote anywhere else. Provisional ballots, same-day registrations and damaged ballots that staff must remake by hand add to the pile. When a signature is missing or doesn't match, the county has to contact the voter so they can fix it.

So a race that looks decided at midnight can still move for days. The Secretary of State says it plainly: results "will change throughout the canvass period."

Key dates for the November 3, 2026 count

Date	What happens
November 3	Polls close at 8 p.m. PT and counties start reporting results
November 5	Counties send the Secretary of State their first estimate of ballots still to count (two days after the election)
November 10	Last day for mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive
November 16	Counties must count and report most ballots (the 13th day), except provisional ballots, signature fixes and a few other types
December 3	Last day for counties to certify their results
December 11	The Secretary of State certifies the statewide Statement of Vote

Where to see how many ballots are left

The Secretary of State posts an "unprocessed ballots report" online. It starts with the counties' estimates two days after the election and gets daily updates as counties send new numbers.

In a close race, this is the number to watch. If the ballots left to count outnumber the margin, the result can still change. For the vote totals themselves, see our California election results 2026 page.

When do Kalshi and Polymarket US governor markets settle?

Both platforms tie the final answer to California's official result. Both also have an early route.

Kalshi. The Kalshi governor contract uses "the official election results produced by" the state. It can resolve early if at least four of eight named media sources have declared a winner and none has made a contradictory call. The eight are The New York Times, the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News. Settlement comes no later than the day after the contract expires, unless the outcome is under review.

Polymarket US. The Polymarket US contract settles on the official result from the election authority. It can settle early on a consensus of named news organizations that either make a formal decision-desk projection or state plainly that the race is decided. Its rules say words like "leading," "on track" or "likely" don't count.

What this means in practice: in a lopsided race, both markets can settle within hours of the calls, weeks before December 11. In a close race where the decision desks hold off, a market can stay open through the canvass. Both rulebooks also say changes reported after a contract expires don't count. For the race itself, read California governor: Becerra vs Hilton two weeks out. For the national picture, see House control in 2026 (opens in a new tab).

Where to trade

See California election markets on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) See California election markets on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

21+. Trading involves risk.

Sources

• California Secretary of State, General Election November 3, 2026: Key Dates and Deadlines (opens in a new tab), checked November 3, 2026
• California Secretary of State, Vote Counting Process (opens in a new tab), checked November 3, 2026
• California Secretary of State voter guide, Election Results (opens in a new tab), checked November 3, 2026
• Kalshi, governor contract terms (GOV) and California governor market rules, checked November 3, 2026
• Polymarket US, Election Winner contract terms (filed July 1, 2026) and California Governor Election Winner market rules, checked November 3, 2026

Frequently asked questions

When do California election markets settle?

Kalshi and Polymarket US can settle a California race early once enough news decision desks call it. Without a call, they wait for official results, which the Secretary of State certifies on December 11, 2026.

What is the deadline for California mail ballots in 2026?

A mail ballot postmarked on or before November 3, 2026 counts if the county receives it by November 10, 2026.

What is California's unprocessed ballots report?

It's an estimate of the ballots counties still have to count. Counties send the first one two days after the election, and the Secretary of State posts it online with daily updates.

Does a race call settle a Kalshi governor market?

It can. Kalshi's rules allow early settlement once at least four of its eight named media sources call the winner and none contradicts it. Otherwise the market uses California's official results.