What are AI IPO prediction markets?

They are yes/no event contracts that pay $1 if a defined IPO milestone, such as Anthropic's IPO being confirmed, happens by a set date, and $0 if it doesn't. The price, between 0¢ and $1, is the market's implied probability.

Can I trade Anthropic or OpenAI IPO odds on Kalshi?

Yes, Kalshi has listed IPO-announcement contracts for both companies and a "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" market. Polymarket has also listed IPO-date and valuation contracts on both. Check each platform for current availability.

When is the Anthropic IPO expected?

The Wall Street Journal reported on September 18, 2026 that Anthropic is targeting November 2026, after its window slipped from earlier in the fall. Timelines can move, so check the live contract for the market's current read.

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Prediction markets have grown skeptical. As of September 2026, OpenAI had reportedly filed confidentially, but reports suggest the listing may slip into 2027. The race contract on Kalshi heavily favored Anthropic to list first.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different IPO odds for the same company?

Mostly because they can resolve on different milestones. For example, one platform may resolve YES when an S-1 is declared effective, while another may require the IPO to be completed or trading. Liquidity differences can also contribute to price gaps.

Can I legally trade AI and tech IPO contracts in California?

Yes. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are available to eligible users in California. Our site's policy is to direct content to users 21 and over. For more on the legal landscape, see our guide on [if Kalshi is legal in California](/guides/is-kalshi-legal-in-california).

Can I trade a contract on my own employer's IPO?

No. Trading on material non-public information can violate CFTC anti-fraud rules, and platforms ban and penalize it. If you work at the company or one of its advisors, you should not trade in that market.

Are AI-regulation contracts as liquid as sports or IPO contracts?

Generally no. Federal AI-bill markets can trade with significantly less volume than major IPO contracts, so check volume and spread before treating a niche regulatory price as a reliable signal.

Are prediction market profits taxed in California?

Yes. Net gains are generally taxable as ordinary income at both the federal and California state level. See our [California taxes guide](/guides/prediction-market-taxes-california) for more details. Affiliate links: we may earn a commission. See our [disclosure](/disclosure). Trade responsibly. 21+.

Macro·9 min read·LOS ANGELES

AI & Tech IPO Prediction Markets: Trading Anthropic, OpenAI and AI Regulation From California

By Catie Di StefanoPublished September 25, 2026Updated September 25, 2026

Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO odds, AI-regulation contracts and Newsom's AI bills: how Kalshi and Polymarket price California's tech economy. Legal, 21+ only.

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AI & Tech IPO Prediction Markets: Trading Anthropic, OpenAI and AI Regulation From California

About the author

Catie Di Stefano

Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years in the regulated gambling industry, starting at Betsson Group in Malta and spending nearly five years at Gaming Innovation Group (GiG) before building an independent consultancy across European and US iGaming brands, including a licensed engagement with Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City under a New Jersey DGE vendor license. She's been interviewed by the California Business Journal on the rise of online gambling in the US, and spoke on a 2022 Next.io panel specifically about California's gaming market. She went on to build the OnlineGamblers.com brand and hold marketing director roles at Smartico.ai and Vegas Kings, and has been named to multiple iGamingExpress industry rankings. She now covers regulated prediction markets full-time.

Fact-checked by Marcus Chen

Editorial standards: How we research and rank

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Macro

Fed June 2026 Meeting: Trading the FOMC on Prediction Markets

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Keep the loop going

This month's biggest prediction market movers

A live board of the biggest 30-day probability shifts across every market we track.

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What changed, and when

Dated log of offer, ranking and state-availability changes so you know how current a page is.

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Sources & further reading

Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked, open them and verify us.

Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar and statements
Meeting dates, statements, and the dot plot that Fed contracts resolve against.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI
The official inflation release used as the resolution source for CPI markets.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Official GDP and personal-income data behind macro and recession contracts.
CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The federal regulator that authorizes and supervises every event-contract exchange we cover.

Frequently asked questions

What are AI IPO prediction markets?: They are yes/no event contracts that pay $1 if a defined IPO milestone, such as Anthropic's IPO being confirmed, happens by a set date, and $0 if it doesn't. The price, between 0¢ and $1, is the market's implied probability.
Can I trade Anthropic or OpenAI IPO odds on Kalshi?: Yes, Kalshi has listed IPO-announcement contracts for both companies and a "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" market. Polymarket has also listed IPO-date and valuation contracts on both. Check each platform for current availability.
When is the Anthropic IPO expected?: The Wall Street Journal reported on September 18, 2026 that Anthropic is targeting November 2026, after its window slipped from earlier in the fall. Timelines can move, so check the live contract for the market's current read.
Will OpenAI go public in 2026?: Prediction markets have grown skeptical. As of September 2026, OpenAI had reportedly filed confidentially, but reports suggest the listing may slip into 2027. The race contract on Kalshi heavily favored Anthropic to list first.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different IPO odds for the same company?: Mostly because they can resolve on different milestones. For example, one platform may resolve YES when an S-1 is declared effective, while another may require the IPO to be completed or trading. Liquidity differences can also contribute to price gaps.
Can I legally trade AI and tech IPO contracts in California?: Yes. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are available to eligible users in California. Our site's policy is to direct content to users 21 and over. For more on the legal landscape, see our guide on [if Kalshi is legal in California](/guides/is-kalshi-legal-in-california).
Can I trade a contract on my own employer's IPO?: No. Trading on material non-public information can violate CFTC anti-fraud rules, and platforms ban and penalize it. If you work at the company or one of its advisors, you should not trade in that market.
Are AI-regulation contracts as liquid as sports or IPO contracts?: Generally no. Federal AI-bill markets can trade with significantly less volume than major IPO contracts, so check volume and spread before treating a niche regulatory price as a reliable signal.
Are prediction market profits taxed in California?: Yes. Net gains are generally taxable as ordinary income at both the federal and California state level. See our [California taxes guide](/guides/prediction-market-taxes-california) for more details. Affiliate links: we may earn a commission. See our [disclosure](/disclosure). Trade responsibly. 21+.

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Next steps

Top platforms Californians are using:

Polymarket

The world's largest prediction market, now live on iPhone in the US.

21+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Kalshi

The regulatory leader.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 21+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

OG (by Crypto.com)

CFTC-regulated event contracts. Get up to $100 in bonuses.