Moonlit California landscape with sequoias, grizzly bear, golden hills and poppies

    California

    Prediction Markets

    $50 trading bonus on Polymarket iPhone · trade $25 get $25 on Kalshi, code CAPREDICTS

    Trade the outcome… Legally, in California.

    The California guide to Kalshi, Polymarket, and other CFTC-regulated prediction market apps.

    Prediction markets are legal in California through CFTC-regulated event contracts. Kalshi, Polymarket, OG, Sleeper, Chalkboard and Novig let Californians take a real-money position on sports, politics, the Fed, and the Oscars without the sportsbook the state still doesn't have.

    Anyone 21+ in California can open a CFTC-regulated account today: Polymarket for depth, OG for crypto funding, Kalshi for 1099 tax forms. Fees run cents per contract, and you can sell before a market resolves.

    Sign up at OG (by Crypto.com)Sign up at Kalshi →
    • CFTC-regulated
    • Legal in California
    • 21+ only
    • Independent: no platform paid for ranking

    21+ only · Federally regulated · Affiliate-supported · We only recommend platforms we'd use ourselves

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    Latest

    What changed this week

    Live updates

    The Brief

    What we're watching today

    All coverage
    1. 01

      Sports/9 min read

      NBA 2026-27 Season: Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Kings Prediction Markets

      The season tips off October 20 and California debuts October 21 with Warriors at Lakers. Here are the live Polymarket prices on all four California teams, the post-LeBron Lakers, the Kawhi trade market, and how to trade it legally from California.

    2. 02

      Sports/9 min read

      NFL 2026 Prediction Markets: Rams, Chargers and 49ers Through Week 2

      The season opens at SoFi Stadium on September 10 with 49ers at Rams. Here are the live Polymarket prices on every California team's first two games, the division and Super Bowl LXI contracts, and the player markets Californians are trading.

    3. 03

      Politics/8 min read

      California's November 2026 Ballot: All 14 Propositions and What Prediction Markets Actually Price

      Fourteen measures qualified for California's November 3, 2026 ballot: an $11.25B housing bond, a rainy-day amendment, and a permanent high-income tax. Here's what's on the ballot, what you can trade from California, and where the market gaps are.

    4. 04

      Politics/8 min read

      House Control 2026 Prediction Markets: Democrats 87.5% and California's 52 Seats

      Polymarket's House control contract has cleared $9.1M with Democrats at 87.5% and Republicans at 13.5%. California decides 52 of the 435 seats: more than any other state. Here's how to read and trade it legally from California.

    5. 05

      Entertainment/8 min read

      Influencer Prediction Markets: The Non-Sports Board Californians Are Actually Trading

      MrBeast subscriber milestones, TIME Person of the Year, Jake Paul running for office, Bad Bunny as 2026's most-searched person. Eight creator contracts are live on Polymarket. And Californians 21+ can legally trade every one of them.

    Quick answers

    Prediction markets in California, answered

    Are prediction markets legal in California?

    Yes. CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket are legal in 48 states plus D.C., including California, under federal commodities law: not state sports-betting law. California legality & taxes →

    Which prediction market apps work in California?

    Kalshi, Polymarket (iPhone), Sleeper, Chalkboard, Novig, and OG by Crypto.com all serve California residents. Kalshi is the easiest USD on-ramp; Polymarket has the deepest book; OG offers the largest welcome bonus. Kalshi, Polymarket, compare them →

    What are event contracts?

    Event contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it doesn't. The price between 0¢ and $1 is the market's real-time probability of the outcome: the same framework powering Kalshi and Polymarket. How event contracts work →

    This week · California

    This week in California prediction markets

    Live odds on the markets Californians care about: Lakers, Warriors, Dodgers, the Governor's race, the Fed, and Eurovision - pulled straight from Kalshi and Polymarket.

    Updated loading PT

    Polymarket · Sports

    Who will win the 2027 NBA title?

    Thunder: %
    Lakers: %
    Warriors: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Macro

    What will the Fed do at the September 2026 meeting?

    No change: %
    +25 bps: %
    -25 bps: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Politics

    Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

    Karen Bass: %
    Nithya Raman: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Hollywood · Live

    Hollywood prediction markets

    Live odds on Oscars nominations, Coachella headliners, the World Cup halftime show, and the celebrity markets LA cares about, pulled straight from Polymarket.

    Updated loading PT

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Who will be announced as the next James Bond?

    No Bond chosen: %
    Jack Lowden: %
    Callum Turner: %
    James Norton: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Oscars?

    The Odyssey: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Which film gets the most nominations at the 99th Oscars?

    The Odyssey: %
    Dune: Messiah: %
    Project Hail Mary: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Which films make the 2027 Oscars Best Picture lineup?

    Wild Horse Nine: %
    The Social Reckoning: %
    Fjord: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Who headlines Coachella 2027?

    Dua Lipa: %
    Billie Eilish: %
    Drake: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Which show wins Outstanding Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

    The Pitt: %
    Slow Horses: %
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Who is Spotify's top global artist for 2026?

    Bad Bunny: %
    Drake: %
    Taylor Swift: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    What is 2026's highest-grossing movie?

    Spider-Man: BND: %
    Avengers: Doomsday: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Which movie has the biggest opening weekend of 2026?

    Spider-Man: BND: %
    Avengers: Doomsday: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?

    Yes: %
    No: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Entertainment

    Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet get engaged in 2026?

    Yes: %
    No: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Creators · Live

    Creator & influencer prediction markets

    Live odds on MrBeast, IShowSpeed, Jake Paul, Jack Doherty and the YouTube, Twitch, Kick and TikTok markets traders are pricing right now, pulled straight from Polymarket.

    Updated loading PT

    Polymarket · Creators

    How many subscribers will MrBeast have by August 31?

    518M: %
    520M: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

    Mamdani: %
    Pope Leo XIV: %
    Trump: %
    Musk: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Who is the #1 searched person on Google in 2026?

    Bad Bunny: %
    Haaland: %
    Trump: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Who is the #1 searched person on Google in the US in 2026?

    Bad Bunny: %
    Haaland: %
    Trump: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to prison time?

    No prison: %
    2-5 years: %
    <2 years: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?

    Yes: %
    No: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Will Nara Smith be confirmed pregnant in 2026?

    Yes: %
    No: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Will Andrew Tate be released from custody in 2026?

    By Dec 31: %
    By Aug 31: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Polymarket · Creators

    Will Andrew Tate be extradited to the UK by September 30?

    Yes: %
    No: %
    Past month

    Live odds loading, refreshes daily at 8am PT.

    View market

    Sponsored: Editor's #2 pick

    Get up to $100 in bonuses on OG by Crypto.com

    CFTC-regulated event contracts. Sports, crypto, and macro markets, legal in California and 41 other states.

    Use code CAPREDICTS at sign-up to claim up to $100 in bonuses.

    Trade now on OG

    New US traders, 21+. Eligibility varies by state. Terms and conditions apply.

    Some links on this page are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, at no cost to you. How we make money.

    OG by Crypto.com: Get up to $100 in bonuses

    Affiliate disclosure

    ProphetX: Trade $10 Get $20!

    Your sports prediction market. Same moments, bigger payouts. Now available nationwide.

    Use code CAPREDICTS, trade $10 and get a $20 bonus.

    Claim the $20 ProphetX bonus

    Available to US residents in 50 states. 21+.

    Some links on this page are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, at no cost to you. How we make money.

    21+ only. ProphetX is a CFTC-licensed sports prediction market. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading involves risk, including the loss of your full position. T&Cs apply.

    ProphetX. Trade $10 and get $20 with code CAPREDICTS.

    Affiliate disclosure

    Kalshi: Trade $25 and Get $25!

    Politics, sports, culture, weather: all in one CFTC-regulated app.

    Use code CAPREDICTS, trade $25 and get a $25 bonus.

    Claim the $25 Kalshi bonus

    Available to US residents in 50 states. 21+.

    Some links on this page are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, at no cost to you. How we make money.

    Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 21+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

    Kalshi. Trade on anything. Trade $25 and get $25 with code CAPREDICTS.

    iPhone offer · CFTC-regulated

    Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus on Polymarket

    The world's largest prediction market, now live for US traders on iPhone.

    Use code CAPREDICTS on the Polymarket iPhone app - deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus.

    iPhone app only · 50 US states · 21+

    Some links on this page are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, at no cost to you. How we make money.

    21+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

    Polymarket. Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus with code CAPREDICTS. iPhone only.

    Why prediction markets, and why now?

    Legal in California

    California has no legal online sportsbook and no clear timeline for one. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, a federal framework that reaches every state and makes them legal for California residents today.

    Price = Probability

    A contract at 62¢ means the market thinks there's a 62% chance. No American odds, no hidden vig - cleaner than anything Californians have seen across the state line in Nevada.

    More than sports

    Trade the Oscars in LA. Lakers and Warriors playoff runs. Newsom's next move. Fed decisions Bay Area traders care about. Election nights, Emmys, and where the California economy goes next.

    Curious how California's options stack up beyond the headline trio? See how all CFTC venues rank across the country, or - if you're closer to the coast - our Venice and LA Pacific-coast guide covers the same legal landscape with a sharper neighborhood focus.how all CFTC venues rank across the country, or, if you're closer to the coast, our Venice and LA Pacific-coast guide covers the same legal landscape with a sharper neighborhood focus.

    Top platforms for California traders

    Ranked for California residents: regulatory standing, liquidity, USD funding from California banks, and how well each platform fits a state with no legal sportsbook. Updated monthly.

    Polymarket

    The world's largest prediction market, now live on iPhone in the US.

    4.8
    PoliticsCultureSportsNews

    Deposit $10 Get a $50 Trading Bonus!CodeCAPREDICTS

    Read Polymarket review

    ProphetX

    Your sports prediction market. Same moments, bigger payouts. Now available nationwide.

    4.7
    SportsPeer-to-peerNFLNBA

    Trade $10 Get $20!CodeCAPREDICTS

    Read ProphetX reviewSign up at ProphetX

    Kalshi

    The regulatory leader.

    4.6
    PoliticsSportsEconomicsCulture

    Trade $25 and Get $25!CodeCAPREDICTS

    Read Kalshi reviewSign up at Kalshi

    Rebet

    Social-first peer-to-peer sports prediction. Travel-only: not available to California residents.

    4.3
    SocialSportsMobile-firstTravel-only

    Novig

    Set your own odds. Peer-to-peer sports prediction, travel-only, not available to California residents.

    4.4
    SportsSharpPeer-to-peerTravel-only

    Spend $5 Get $50 in Novig CoinsCodeCAPREDICTS

    Read Novig reviewSign up at Novig

    Common questions about prediction markets in California

    Are prediction markets legal in California?

    Yes. CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges like Kalshi are legal in 48 states plus D.C. under federal commodities law, including California. They are not classified as sports betting under California law because they trade as commodities derivatives on a federally-regulated venue.

    Is Kalshi legal in California?

    Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) and is open to California residents 21 and over. You can fund an account with a US bank or debit card and trade event contracts immediately.

    What's the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?

    Kalshi is US-regulated, USD-funded, and the easier choice for Californians. Polymarket is crypto-funded (USDC on Polygon), offers deeper political and global markets, and now serves US traders again through perpetual-futures products. Most Californians start on Kalshi.

    Do I owe California taxes on prediction-market winnings?

    Yes. Net gains from CFTC event contracts are taxable as ordinary income at both the federal and California state level. Platforms issue 1099 forms above reporting thresholds. See our California taxes guide for full detail.

    What's the minimum to start trading?

    In California, most platforms have no account minimum. Kalshi lets you fund as little as $5; Polymarket requires a USDC wallet but no minimum balance. Start small while you learn how contract pricing works.

    How are prediction markets different from sportsbooks?

    Sportsbooks set odds, take a margin, and pay you against the house. Prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges where the price of a contract reflects the real-time probability of the outcome. And there is no house edge baked into the odds.

    Does it matter if I'm in LA, SF, or San Diego?

    No. CFTC-regulated prediction markets are legal statewide in California: Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Fresno, the whole state. Funding works from any California bank or debit card.

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    Guides for the curious

    Pick Your Platform

    Side-by-side comparisons

    Not sure where to start? Compare the major prediction markets head-to-head, written for California traders choosing their first, or second, platform.

    See all comparisons

    Sources & further reading

    Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked, open them and verify us.

    Open an account

    Pick a platform and get started in 60 seconds.

    All three are legal in California today. Use code CAPREDICTS where shown to claim the welcome bonus.

    Polymarket

    The world's largest prediction market, now live on iPhone in the US.

    ProphetX

    Your sports prediction market. Same moments, bigger payouts. Now available nationwide.

    Sign up at ProphetX

    Kalshi

    The regulatory leader.

    Sign up at Kalshi