NFL MVP Odds 2026: California Quarterbacks and Market Rules
Stafford won the 2025 award; Purdy and Herbert feature in the 2026 conversation. Understand award rules and market prices without relying on an unverified leaderboard.
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TL;DR:
The AP NFL MVP award for the 2026 regular season remains undecided. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won the previous season's award. Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert are familiar California quarterbacks, but early performances do not settle this year's vote. Check the specific contract, its bid and ask, fees and resolution terms before citing any market ranking.
Stafford won the 2025 award; Purdy and Herbert feature in the 2026 conversation. Understand award rules and market prices without relying on an unverified leaderboard.
What we know so far
The NFL announced Matthew Stafford as its 2025 AP MVP (opens in a new tab) at NFL Honors in February 2026. That is a completed award, not this season's winner.
Through San Francisco's first two 2026 games, Brock Purdy completed 45 of 56 passes, or 80.4%, according to official NFL statistics (opens in a new tab) reviewed September 26. His Week 3 numbers will require a fresh check after the September 27 game. Two games are a small sample; neither Herbert's nor Stafford's reputation is a forecast of the AP vote.
What does an NFL MVP contract price mean?
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Last checked November 12, 2026
A yes/no award contract names one candidate and a settlement outcome. A 15-cent Yes ask, for example, describes an illustrative offer before fees and spread; it is not a real-time quote, an official NFL forecast or proof of a 15% chance. The Kalshi MVP market (opens in a new tab) publishes its own conditions; read the exact event rather than using a generic award headline.
Record the award season, candidate, Yes or No side, source, closing time, bid and ask, liquidity and applicable fees. The amount paid may be lost.
How is the award decided?
The Associated Press voting process (opens in a new tab) determines the AP NFL awards. Consult the league for the announcement of this season's result and the operator for its particular settlement rules, including any tie or postponement conditions.
Before citing any MVP ranking
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Polymarket: Sports, politics and culture markets in US dollars.
Sign up at Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
- Record the exact US exchange, event identifier and candidate.
- Record the quote field, date, time and time zone; a bid is not the same as an ask.
- Check eligibility in California under the operator's current contract rules.
- Refresh official NFL results and injury reports after each game week.
We do not publish an unverified September MVP leaderboard here. General platform links do not establish that an MVP contract is available. See our 49ers guide for team context and our cross-market pricing guide for comparing contracts; this article does not repeat their figures. This site is for readers 21 and older. This is educational information, not legal or financial advice.
About the author
Catie Di Stefano
Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years in the regulated gambling industry, starting at Betsson Group in Malta and spending nearly five years at Gaming Innovation Group (GiG) before building an independent consultancy across European and US iGaming brands, including a licensed engagement with Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City under a New Jersey DGE vendor license. She's been interviewed by the California Business Journal on the rise of online gambling in the US, and spoke on a 2022 Next.io panel specifically about California's gaming market. She went on to build the OnlineGamblers.com brand and hold marketing director roles at Smartico.ai and Vegas Kings, and has been named to multiple iGamingExpress industry rankings. She now covers regulated prediction markets full-time.
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Sources & further reading
Every figure and legal claim on this page traces back to a primary source. These are the ones we checked, open them and verify us.
- NFL: Stafford wins 2025 MVP (opens in a new tab)
Prior season's result.
- NFL: Brock Purdy statistics (opens in a new tab)
Official player statistics.
- AP: NFL award voting (opens in a new tab)
Award voting process.
Next steps
Top platforms Californians are using:
Polymarket
Sports, politics and culture markets in US dollars.
Sign up at Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
ProphetX
Your sports prediction market. Same moments, bigger payouts. Available in 49 states plus D.C.
Sign up at ProphetX (opens in a new tab)New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.
Kalshi
US-regulated (CFTC) exchange with a wide range of markets.
Sign up at Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the previous NFL MVP award?
Matthew Stafford won the AP MVP award for the 2025 NFL season, announced at NFL Honors in February 2026.
Does an MVP market price predict the official result?
No. It is a changing price on a particular contract. Check its bid and ask, fees and settlement terms.
What did Brock Purdy do through Week 2 of 2026?
He completed 45 of 56 passes, or 80.4%, in two games, according to NFL statistics reviewed September 26. Recheck after Week 3.
Can someone in California trade this award contract?
Availability depends on the specific US operator, event and current account rules. This guide does not establish universal access.
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Paid partnership with OG. Terms and conditions apply. Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Availability subject to jurisdictional limitations. For more information, visit: OG.com. - ProphetX: Trade $40 Get $40 (code
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
